荣格财经区块链思想者郭善琪:共识经济学基本框架|思想库

|郭善琪 2018-04-26 10:11:07 1245 来源:郭善琪
摘要:荣格财经区块链思想者四十人论坛共同发起人郭善琪是共识经济学(Consenomics)创立者,清华大学工商管理硕士,2014 APEC亚太金融论坛金融风险分论坛主席,亚太金融理事会

编者按


荣格财经区块链思想者四十人论坛共同发起人郭善琪是共识经济学(Consenomics)创立者,清华大学工商管理硕士,2014 APEC亚太金融论坛金融风险分论坛主席,亚太金融理事会(APFC,Asia Pacific Financial Council)副秘书长,UCU(Universal Credit Union)主席,UBS(Universal Blockchain Society)主席,共识经济学研究会(CS,  of Consenomics Society)主席,国家电网研究员,2014中国电子商务峰会互联网金融论坛主旨演讲嘉宾,2017国际电信联盟(ITU)日内瓦区块链专题论坛主旨演讲嘉宾(是代表中国出席会议并做主旨演讲的三位嘉宾之一)。


Cheeye GUO (GUO, Shanqi), Founder of Consenomics, Master of Business Administration from Tsinghua University, Chairman of Financial Risk Forum in 2014 APEC Asia-Pacific Financial Forum, Deputy Secretary-General of Asia-Pacific Financial Council, Chairman of UCU (Universal Credit Union), Chairman of UBS (Universal Blockchain Society), Chairman of  CS (Consenomics Society),  Researcher of STATE GRID, Keynote speaker of the Internet Finance Forum in 2014 China E-Commerce Summit, Keynote speaker of the ITU ( International Telecommunication Union ) Geneva Blockchain Symposium 2018 (one of the three guests representing China at the conference and making keynote speeches).


荣格财经特编辑发布其有关共识经济学的基本框架,以飨读者。也欢迎各位读者在评论区互动留言。荣格财经思想者四十人论坛,只为这个世界注入一湾清水,一池思想。




作者写在前面的话


2018,戊戌120周年。


2018,区块链之父中本聪的经典论文《一种点对点的电子货币》发表十周年。


2018,以雷曼兄弟公司破产为标志的金融危机所引发的全球信用危机演化蔓延成经济危机十周年。


2018,以奢华繁盛的开幕式与闭幕式而闻名于世的北京奥运会十周年。


2018,中国改革开放四十周年,当下的改革共识却面临无法弥合的撕裂。


风雨如磐  往事如烟


回首2008,从繁花如锦的顶峰(8月8日,北京奥运会)到坠入绝望深渊的谷底(9月15日,雷曼兄弟公司宣布破产),仅仅一月有余,恐慌与绝望从美国资本市场迅速蔓延至欧洲及全球金融市场,一场史无前例的信用危机很快导致了第二次世界大战以来的全球经济危机。


弹指间,花落花开已经十载。虽然美国经济正在缓慢复苏,但是,2008年那场以雷曼兄弟公司破产为标志的金融危机所引发的全球信用危机演化蔓延成的全球经济危机仍未走出谷底,很多经济体尚在经济危机的泥潭中苦苦挣扎。


回首2008,雷曼兄弟公司破产事件敲响了源自1944年布雷顿森林会议所确定的以美元为世界统一货币的全球公信力经济体系的丧钟。


回首2008,中本聪的不朽论文的发布(11月1日),正如数九寒冬中瑟瑟发抖的那根迎春花枝幼芽,默默地点亮了春天的希望。以此为标志,人类社会的经济活动大踏步迈向了基于共信力的新时代。



共识荡荡   浮梦悠悠



从宏观层面观察,从2008年11月1日起,人类经济发展已逐步迈进共信力(PVC, Power based on priVate Confidence)时代,1944年至2008年亦可称之为公信力(PBC, Power on puBlic Confidence )时代,而1944年之前则是原始的共信力时代。


2009年以来,基于区块链之上发生了许多惊心动魄的经济活动和经济现象,传统经济学束手无策,要么冷言嘲讽,要么置若罔闻。


2013年以来,基于区块链之上发生的经济活动规模日益扩大,影响力也日益提升,全球主权执政当局、金融监管当局、商业巨头、草根创业者,纷纷投入区块链经济的大潮之中,奋力拼搏,竭力提升区块链底层技术,积极探索区块链的应用场景。


正确经济学理论的缺失,使得很多基于区块链的经济活动处于一种盲目的疯狂与癫狂之中,追梦者彻夜难眠。亦有人提出区块链经济学或通证经济学,然而,这两种提法至少存在三个问题:


(1)缺失或者是没有构建有别于现有经济学理论的基础核心概念,试问:一门崭新学科大厦能够在没有独立的基础核心概念的地基上拔地而起吗?



(2)通观现有的关于区块链经济学或者通证经济学的描述,大部分是在描述基于区块链发生的一些独特经济活动现象,或者是用传统经济学的个别概念来简单分析前述经济活动现象。



(3)普遍适用性是一门学科必须具备的特性,在构建理论体系之初就应该考虑其是否普遍适用性,而前述两种提法是不具备这种普遍适用性的。



显然,无论是区块链经济学还是通证经济学,只是意图解读现有的基于区块链发生的经济活动现象。


共识经济学则不同,不仅可以解释基于区块链发生的经济活动现象,亦能解释非区块链为基础的传统经济活动现象。


子在川上曰:逝者如斯夫,不舍昼夜!


未来已来,势不可挡;顺之者昌,逆之者亡。


时代呼唤共识经济学,伟大的时代呼唤伟大的理论。


1.jpg



共识经济学研究基本框架建议



共识经济学(Consenomics, Consensus + Economics)研究价值创造与价值分配过程的共识机制,即,研究共识在组织稀缺资源创造价值(有价值的商品或服务)及在不同经济主体之间分配价值过程中的作用机理。


Consenomics (Consenomics, Consensus + Economics) studies the mechanism of consensus in the process of value creation and value distribution, that is, the role of consensus in the creation of value (valuable goods or services) and the distribution of value among different economic entities in the organization of scarce resources.



一、共识经济学基本概念

Foundamental Concepts of Consenomics



1、共识(Consensus)

共识(Consensus)是特定人群(社区、组织、社会)在特定历史阶段就某个经济活动或社会活动中的特定议题达成的一致意见。

Consensus (Consensus) is the consensus that a particular group of people (communities, organizations, societies) can agree on specific issues in a particular economic activity or social event at a specific historical stage.


2、共识机制(Consensus Mechanism)

共识机制(Consensus Mechanisms)是共识在组织稀缺资源创造价值(有价值的商品或服务)及在不同经济主体之间分配价值过程中的作用机理。

Consensus Mechanism is the functional mechanism of consensus in the process of creating value (valuable goods or services) and distributing value among different economic entities.


从制度经济学的视角来观察,共识机制是区块链社区的核心制度和组织激励机制,其核心的经济学意义在于降低了交易成本。

From the perspective of institutional economics, Consensus Mechanism is the core system and organizational incentive mechanism of blockchain community, whose core economic significance is to reduce transaction costs.


从博弈论的视角来看,以共识机制为核心的区块链经济将经济活动参与方之间的博弈关系转变为协调配合关系。

From the point of view of game theory, the blockchain based economy,which takes the consensus mechanism as the core,transforms the game relationship between the participants of economic activities into the coordination and cooperation relationship.


3、公信力(PBC, Power based on puBlic Confidence)

公信力在本质上是特定公众机构由于公众对其信任而产生的对经济生态或社会生态所产生的影响力。

PBC (Credibility) is essentially the influence of a particular public institution on economic ecology or social ecology arising from the public’s trust in it.


4、共信力(PVC, Power based on priVate Confidence)

共信力在本质上是一种由于点对点的信任而产生的对经济生态或社会生态所产生的影响力。

In essence, PVC (the common faith) is a kind of influence to economic ecology or social ecology, which is caused by the trust of point to point.


5、共识与常识的区别(The difference between Consensus and Common Sense)

从某种程度上说,常识是历史性共识,是特定人群(社区、组织、社会)在特定历史阶段就某个经济活动或社会活动中的特定议题已经达成的共识,是新共识的基础。

To some extent, common sense is a historical consensus, a consensus that a particular group of people (communities, organizations, societies) has reached on specific issues in a particular economic activity or social event at a specific historical stage, and is the basis of a new consensus.




二、共识经济学基本判断

Basic Judgment of Consenomics



1、共识与契约(Consensus and Contract)

契约是经济活动的基本制度之一,共识是达成契约的首要条件,无共识,即无契约。

Contract is one of the basic systems of economic activity, while consensus is the first condition to reach a contract, i.e., no consensus, no contract.


2、共识与制度(Consensus and Insitiutions)

制度是社会(社区、组织)秩序的保障,契约(成文契约或非成文契约)的集合体构成制度,共识是达成契约的首要条件,因此,无共识,即无制度。

Institutions, which is the collective constitution of contracts (written or unwritten contract), is the guarantee of social (community, organization) Order, while the consensus is the first condition to reach a contract, therefore, there is no institutions without consensus.


3、共识与社会(社区、组织)

Consensus and Society (Community, Organization)

秩序是社会(社区、组织)得以稳健持续发展的前提,制度是秩序的保障,契约的集合体构成制度,共识是达成契约的首要条件,因此,无共识,无社会(社区、组织)。

Order is the prerequisite for the steady and sustainable development of the Society (Community, Organization), while the institutions is the guarantee of order, in which the combination of the contract constitutes the system, in addtion, the consensus is the first condition to reach the contract, therefore, there is no society (community, organization) without consensus.


4、达成共识的根本动因

The Fundamental Cause of Consensus

特定人群(社区、组织、社会)在特定历史阶段就某个经济活动或社会活动中的特定议题达成一致意见,是谓共识。达成共识根本动因是降低特定人群(社区、组织、社会)在特定历史历史阶段参与某个经济活动或社会活动所面临的不确定性。

Consensus is what a particular group of people (communities, organizations, societies) can agree on specific issues in a particular economic activity or social event at a specific historical stage. The fundamental motivation for consensus is to reduce the uncertainty that a particular group of people (communities, organizations, societies) may face in a particular economic activity or social event at a specific historical stage.


5、通证(Token)的价值来源

The Value Source of the Token

Token 的价值来源是区块链社区的共识(Consensus ),而区块链经济则由社区、Token 、分布式帐本和应用场景四个部分构成。

The value source of Token is the consensus of blockchain community, while the blockchain economy is composed of four parts of community, i.e., Token, distributed ledger and application scene.


6、货币的价值来源与本质

The Value Source and Essence of Money

货币的价值来源亦是共识,其本质是一种契约,是货币使用者和接受者之间的共识约定。

The value source of money is also the consensus, as  a matter of fact, its essence is a contract, which is the agreement between the currency user and the recipient.


7、公信力时代与共信力时代

Time of PBC and Time of PVC

从宏观层面观察,从2008年11月1日起,人类经济发展已逐步迈进共信力(PVC, Power based on priVate Confidence)时代,1944年至2008年亦可称之为公信力(PBC, Power on puBlic Confidence )时代,而1944年之前则是原始的共信力时代。

From the macroscopic perspective, from November 1, 2008 onwards, the human economic development has gradually entered the era of PVC (Power based on priVate Confidence), more over, the time from 1944 to 2008 can also be called the PBC (Power based on puBlic Confidence)era, while the time before 1944 was called the era of primary PVC.



三、共识经济学基本理论

Basic Theory of Consenomics



1、共识的渊源(The Sources of Consensus)

我们可以从哲学、制度经济学和社会学这三个层面来研究共识的渊源。

We can study the origin of consensus from the three aspects,namely,  philosophy, institutional economics and sociology.


(1)从哲学层面观察共识的渊源

To Observe the Origin of Consensus from the Philosophical level


从哲学层面观察,共识源自社会(社区、组织)成员对真、善、质、量及相关基本问题的一致认识。

From the perspective of philosophy, consensus derives from the consensus of the members of society (Community, organization) on the truth, goodness, quality, quantity and related fundamental issues.


(2)从制度经济学层面观察共识的渊源

The Origin of Observing Consensus from the Perspective of Institutional Economics


从制度经济学层面观察,共识源自社会(社区、组织)成员对经济活动中的正式规则和非正式规则的一致认可。

From the perspective of institutional economics, consensus derives from the unanimous recognition of the members of society (Community, organization) on formal rules and informal rules in economic activities.


(3)从社会学层面观察共识的渊源The Origin of Observing Consensus from the Sociological level


1、从社会学层面观察,共识源自社会(社区、组织)成员对社会活动中的正式秩序和非正式秩序的一致认可。

Viewed from the sociological level, consensus derives from the unanimous recognition of the members of society (Community, organization) for formal order and informal order in social activities.



2、共识的实现(Implementation of Consensus)


如何实现共识?传统经济和区块链经济是迥然不同的。


How to achieve consensus?  It is very different between traditional economy and blockchain economy.


(1)共识在传统经济中的实现(Realization of Consensus in traditional economy)


在传统经济中,共识通过一系列正式与非正式的契约所构成的制度来实现。

In the traditional economy, consensus is achieved through a series of formal and informal contracts.


(2)共识在区块链经济中的实现(Realization of Consensus in blockchain economy)


在区块链经济中,共识通过一系列算法所构成的数字可编程智能合约来实现。

In the blockchain economy, consensus is realized through a series of digital programmable intelligent contracts composed of algorithms.


3、共识的变迁The Change of Consensus


共识在区块链经济中的变迁路径与传统经济类似,都包括两种方式,即渐变和突变。

The changing path of consensus in the blockchain economy is similar to that of the traditional economy, including two kinds of ways, namely, gradual change and mutation.


(1)共识在传统经济中的变迁(The Change of Consensus in traditional economy)


在传统经济中,共识的变迁包括渐变与突变,前者是社会经济正常发展过程中的和平演变,后者是社会遭遇战争或政权更迭而造成的制度跃变。

In traditional economy, the change of consensus includes gradual change and mutation, the former is a peaceful evolution in the normal development of social economy, and the latter is the system transition caused by the society encountering war or regime alternation.


(2)共识在区块链经济中的变迁(The Change of Consensus in blockchain economy)


在区块链经济中,就目前观察而言,共识的变迁亦包括渐变(软分叉)和突变(硬分叉)。

In the blockchain economy, as far as the current observation is concerned, the change of consensus also includes the gradient change or evolution (soft forking) and mutation (hard bifurcation, or hard forkiing).


审核人:

标签: 郭善琪 区块链 荣格财经

觉得不错,给小编个打赏吧

评论
0
0

登录后才可以评论

查看全部(0)

相关阅读

郭善琪

郭善琪,共识经济学(Consenomics)创立者,AI与区块链思想布道者,清华大学工商管理硕士,大连海事大学工学士,共识之DAO发起人,链经三人行发起人,区块链思想者40人论坛发起人。

评论(0

荣格财经名家专栏

展示荣格财经专栏名家个人发布的最新、最热区块链资讯文章。

推荐名家 更多>

最新快评更多>

推荐阅读 更多>

关注微博

关注荣格财经微信公众号

荣格财经读者11群

加入荣格财经技术交流群